Popcorn Pick- August 2011

August at the multiplex is another confusing month- some call it summer, some call it fall. I call it both, as evidenced by the diversity of films coming out this month. Some are clearly leftovers of the big summer films that couldn't quite find a place among the superheroes and fighting robots. And some are the beginning of the fall films, which are middling entertainment at best, squished in between the big movies of summer and Thanksgiving. But I'm a firm believer that there's always something worthwhile playing at the theater, as long as you find one with a lot of screens. In that spirit, here are my picks for the month of August.


Friday, August 5th
The Change-Up

Think if Fready Friday had been made by dudes, and for an R-rated audience. That's exactly what The Change-Up is, an old tired premise given a raunchy facelift. Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman play their typical characters- a hunky womanizer and a responsible dad with a career, respectively- until they magically switch bodies and have to live out each other's lives. Allowing both actors to play against-type is sure to be insanely funny, considering it's from the director of Wedding Crashers and the writers of The Hangover. The last big comedy of the summer.


Wednesday, August 10th
The Help

Clearly not my kind of movie. But guys: never underestimate the ladies. The same crowd that made the novel by Kathryn Stockett a massive success will also propel the film adaptation to success. The film stars the lovely Emma Stone, playing a young white journalist in the South who chooses to write about the struggles and bigotry black maids go through on a daily basis. The book has received comparisons to To Kill a Mockingbird. I doubt the movie will be that sensational, but it will certainly be a hit.


Friday, August 19th
Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Despite a slew of new releases this week, there's nothing really worthwhile coming out. (A Conan the Barbarian remake in 3-D? Yawn.) So instead, check out this two-weeks old film, after the crowds have gone away. A prequel to the classic 1968 film charting how primates came to be superintelligent and take over the world, this movie seems mostly unnecessary, but still entertaining, even for people who aren't fans of the franchise. Stars James Franco, Freida Pinto (Slumdog Millionaire), and Andy Serkis (Gollum in The Lord of the Rings) as the ape leader Caesar.


Friday, August 26th
One Day

Okay, so I lied. There is one may-be-good movie opening on the 19th. The horror film Don't Be Afraid of the Dark looks promising, but it may open in limited release, so instead see the one-week-old One Day, another chick flick based on a popular novel. The cliched story is made unique by its premise: two people meet and have a one-night stand, only to decide to become friends, and don't realize their love for each other until years later. The layout is more complicated than that: over twenty years, only one day a year is dramatized, cutting out all the middle stuff and allowing our actors to age two decades. The actors in question are the lovely Anne Hathaway and the appealing Jim Sturgess (Across the Universe). The design is built for a book platform and may not work so well on screen, but it's still worth a look if you're into romance films.

Fall starts in full force in September, so stay tuned for my picks next month!

Popcorn Pick- July 2011

Greetings, avid moviegoers!
Summer marches on, and with it comes the biggest movies of the season. That's right, more superheroes, fighting robots, aliens, and boy wizards are in our future, and we will be bombarded by all of them before the summer's over. Some will be bad, and some will hopefully be so good they bring a tear to our eye. At any rate, July brings something for everyone to the multiplex, making me not the only person excited for this month.


Wednesday, June 29th*
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Sigh. Well, at least Megan Fox is gone, right?
It's true, the third installment in the massively popular trilogy brings some of the biggest action, thrills, and visual splendor to the table, with a more grounded, emotional plot and new characters. But the biggest question on everyone's lips isn't about the giant robots, it's, where's Megan Fox? And who's this new girl, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley? Shia LaBeouf returns for more running and screaming, while Michael Bay has fun with his usual 8-year-old director shtick. And of course, this is the first film in the franchise in 3D. Prepare to have your eyes bleed. And what's with that inept title? Is there a word missing?


Friday, July 8th
Horrible Bosses

Haven't heard of this film? I don't blame you. They haven't advertised it much. Since it's a big summer comedy, my hunch is that something is wrong with the film since it's not generating any buzz. But you know what, the trailer looks pretty good, so here it's included in my list. Three mild-mannered working guys (Jason Bateman, Saturday Night Live's Jason Sudeikis, and It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia's Charlie Day) conspire to kill their respective bosses, who are ruining their lives. The bosses are each played by actors with tour-de-force performances: Kevin Spacey as a leering slave driver, Colin Farrell as a bald and fat guy, and Jennifer Aniston as a brunette (!) bitch. The dark comedy also stars Jamie Foxx.


Friday, July 15th
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

The last Harry Potter film. I think everyone knows the significance- and the magnitude- of that statement, even if they're not fans of the franchise. Set to be the biggest movie of the summer, the eighth and final film in the highest-grossing film franchise of all time returns to where it all began, Hogwarts Castle, after it being MIA in Part 1. All bets are off as both sides of the wizarding world decide to meet in battle. Everyone is looking forward to the climactic Harry/Voldemort smackdown and wondering what details from the book were changed, but the part I'm most excited for? The reveal of Snape's secret past.
It's also been converted to 3D; not sure how I feel about that.


Friday, July 22nd
Captain America: The First Avenger

The second Avengers movie of the summer (after Thor) is sort of a prequel: set in World War II, a weak Army recruit is given superhuman strength and reflexes in order to fight the Nazis. It's about time the most famous comic-book superhero after Superman got a big-screen adaptation, but sadly, there is not much buzz surrounding this film, and it looks less than stellar. It stars Chris Evans (Fantastic 4) as Cap, with Hugo Weaving as the villain.
Fans, look for the inevitable Iron Man connections scattered throughout.


Friday, July 29th
Cowboys & Aliens

This may just be the worst movie of the year. The title alone is the worst since Snakes on a Plane. But at least you know exactly what it's about: aliens land in the Old West, and a criminal and a lawman have to band together to defeat the invaders. Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford (haven't seen him in much lately) star in this genre-bending actioner.

Some say August is a summer month, but in my mind, summer ends with July. There are many more movies coming out in July (you'll notice I missed several kids' films, including the Winnie the Pooh reboot), so remember that just because I didn't pick them here, doesn't mean they're not worth seeing. So check out at least one movie this month- you'll be glad you did!

*It's true, this movie should have been in last month's post, but in my defense, it was moved up from its original release date of July 1st at the last minute.

Popcorn Pick- June 2011

Greetings, avid moviegoers!

Popcorn Pick is back! In blog form, at least- the way it began. I'll still be coming to you every month bringing you my expertise on the current cinema.
And, it's officially summer! Which means all the big franchise movies are appearing. Some will suck, some will rock your socks, some will be utterly forgettable. Maybe I can help sort them out for you.

Friday, June 3rd
X-Men: First Class

The fifth X-Men movie is yet another prequel, but early reviews say it's much better than the disappointing Wolverine. Clearly they're trying to replicate the success of the stellar first two films, by examining the backstory of Xavier (before he's a professor) and Magneto (before he's evil). Several familiar faces show up, and it wouldn't be X-Men if they didn't have a whole bunch of new colorful characters as well. My biggest question: how the heck does Xavier wind up in a wheelchair? Our heroes are played by rising young stars James McAvoy (Wanted) and Michael Fassbender (Inglourious Basterds).

Friday, June 10th
Super 8

I know, I know. I've converted to the church of J.J. Abrams and I bow down to all that he does. And I know, I'm pretty much the only person that's super excited to see this. But has anyone seen the trailer? This looks like a mash-up of Abrams' last film Star Trek and producer Steven Spielberg's classic Close Encounters of the Third Kind. The plot involves a bunch of kids in the '70s who accidentally film a train crash and discover the supernatural secret the train was transporting- a secret the government doesn't want you to know. Is it an alien? Details are very hush-hush, which makes me want to see this even more. Stars Kyle Chandler (TV's Friday Night Lights).

Friday, June 17th
Green Lantern

Tis the season for superhero movies. If you're experiencing Marvel fatigue (Thor, X-Men), try the DC universe. Ryan Reynolds plays the obscure comic-book superhero who wears a green suit of light and can create any object he thinks of using a magic ring. This is a massive CGI experience, which could help it or hinder it depending on the amount of action in the film. Worth a look...but skip the 3D version.

Friday, June 24th
Cars 2

Sigh... I'm one of Pixar's biggest fans, so I was very disappointed when I heard this was their film for this year. The sequel to the lulling 2006 hit throws out all connections to the first film and makes it a globe-trotting spy action thriller. (My theory: after star Paul Newman's death, they had to create a plot that wouldn't question why the main characters aren't in Radiator Springs.) It seems even a studio as great as Pixar will sell out eventually and make a movie for money instead of for art. But I'm being unfair- I'm still going to see it, for curiosity if not for anything else, and for my love of the studio.
It's also worth noting that Disney is the only studio that does 3D well, and the film is available in that format. If you're one of the few excited to see this movie, shell out the extra cash for the glasses.

July brings even bigger movies, in fact, the biggest movies of the year, so stick around! I'll see you at the theatre next month!

2011 Oscar Winners Predictions

Is it that time already?
Well, no, the Oscars aren't until Sunday the 27th, but I can still get excited about them early!
It may be a little too early to make these predictions (officially, the voting polls haven't even closed yet), but I think the race is set and no dramatic changes are going to happen between now and then that will change the outcomes.
The numbers for the nominees go as follows: 12 for The King's Speech (the most this year; it has a shot at breaking the current record of 11 wins), 10 for True Grit, 8 each for The Social Network and Inception, 7 for The Fighter, 6 for 127 Hours, 5 each for Black Swan and Toy Story 3, 4 each for The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone, and 3 for Alice in Wonderland. Every other film gets only 1 or 2 nominations.
This is my third annual Oscar winners predictions. As usual, I choose the winners in every category. I divide my picks in two: who I think will end up winning and who I think deserves to win. And as always I value your comments and input!

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Toy Story 3

These days the Best Picture race is hard to predict. Ten films is a lot! If any animated film could win Best Picture, it's the beloved Pixar sequel Toy Story 3, which has earned instant classic status, universal acclaim, and the unique distinction of being the highest-grossing movie of last year. (And that's a year that included a Harry Potter and a Twilight movie!) And it has the special honor of only being the third animated film to be nominated for this award, especially impressive considering that it's a sequel, and that the first two Toy Story films weren't nominated. Unfortunately, the Academy is still prejudiced against animation. So while I'm convinced it will happen someday, it won't be this year. My other favorite to win is, of course, Inception, the head-trip action/sci-fi that wowed audiences all over. While it's well-represented this year, it really doesn't stand a chance winning any major awards. 127 Hours and The Kids Are All Right are both fantastic films in their own rights, but there is heavy competition this year and they'll likely be forgotten. Despite its ten nominations, there isn't a whole lot of love going on for True Grit or the Coen brothers. The race is really between two films: the early favorite, The Social Network, and the late-show-stopper The King's Speech. While I believe Network to be the superior film, it seems like the table has turned and they will go with the more traditional (and British) choice of Speech. It has more nominations- the most this year, in fact- and the majority of the Academy voters are older folks, who probably don't "get" a lot of the characters in Network.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Who will win: David Fincher
Who should win: David Fincher

With the playing field split between The King's Speech and The Social Network, I forsee a unique opportunity: give the more popular film the Director award and the traditional Oscar fare Best Picture, supposedly so everyone's happy. Still, Hooper could upset here. But seriously, Fincher does deserve the award for pulling off one of the most-talked-about movies of the year and actually making it good. Aronofsky also gets kudos for creating a dark and sexual mood in his film, but it's one that the Academy doesn't give big awards to.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Who will win: Colin Firth
Who should win: James Franco

This is an interesting category: we have the potential for an extremely rare back-to-back win. Jeff Bridges, of course, won last year and is nominated again for a pretty similar role. (John Wayne won Best Actor for the same role in the original True Grit in 1969.) While people love his performance, he's not the one that's likely to win. It will probably go to Firth (another back-to-back nominee) for his stuttering monarch as support for the film has skyrocketed recently. While Firth was exceptional in the part- in fact I think his scenes with Geoffrey Rush are the best in the movie- he's not my personal choice. I choose Franco for essentially being a one-man movie as real-life hiker Aron Ralston, the guy who got stuck in a canyon by a rock and had to cut off his own arm to survive. Very few actors can have as much screen time alone as he did and pull it off, let alone not being able to move for the majority of that time. Of course, Eisenberg also deserves kudos for his career-changing performance as the founder of Facebook, a rude and forward-thinking genius who commands the screen.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Who will win: Annette Bening
Who should win: Natalie Portman

This one was a head-scratcher. As it is with so many awards this year, the playing field is between two strong contenders: Bening and Portman. At this point it could go either way, but I think they will ultimately choose Bening, the early favorite as a stressed-out lesbian mom trying to keep her family from falling apart. The scene where she realizes her wife has been sleeping with a man is one of the most painful shots in the movie. Portman, on the other hand, plays a ballerina trying to keep her mind from falling apart as she begins hallucinating before a big show. The whole movie follows her on this descent into madness. It was hard for me to choose which one actually deserved the award; I finally came to the conclusion that Portman's role was more difficult to master. Of course, if there is a tie, I would be delighted.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Who will win: Christian Bale
Who should win: Christian Bale

Bale, the Batman actor, is known for diving into a part completely, and he went all Method on us again for this role as a crack-addicted former boxer. He will deservedly win his first Oscar. Any actor who can control his weight as well as he can deserves some kind of recognition. Rush could still upset as his film is still going strong. Kudos also goes to Renner (the third back-to-back nominee, although he was up for Best Actor last year) for an explosive performance as a bank robber on the edge, and for getting his film's only nomination. (Why no love for The Town?)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Who will win: Melissa Leo
Who should win: Hailee Steinfeld

Leo is the favorite to win here as a mama grizzly set on protecting her large family. She was the biggest, and best, surprise of the film. However, my vote goes to the young Steinfeld for holding her own, and then some, in the man's world of the Old West. On paper, one would have to wonder if there was even a girl out there who could play the part. She truly is a revelation. Unfortunately, her age is a big deterrant with the Academy. If there's an upset, it will likely go to Bonham Carter for her buttoned-down performance as the Queen. I'm a big fan of Adams, but her performance is only noteworthy when you compare it to her usual roles. Has anyone in America seen Animal Kingdom?

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: 127 Hours

With the writing awards, there is no need to split the field, so both of the Academy's favorite films can win. In the Adapted section, The Social Network will easily snag it for Aaron Sorkin's biting dialogue. While I'm a fan of that film, my vote goes to 127 Hours. How do you write a good movie about a guy who can't move? It's not easy to do, but they constructed the most unique film of the year in the process. It dives into his mind and forces viewers to ask the question, what would you do in the same situation? Kudos also goes to Toy Story 3; it's just too bad it took them this long to come out with the third film in the series.

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Inception

Again, the Academy's favorite will win here: the very traditional screenplay for the very down-to-earth King's Speech. My vote goes to the most original film of the year, one which blended science fiction, suspense, drama, and exciting action setpieces to produce a genuine hit. If the Academy weren't so averse to blockbusters, they would hand Christopher Nolan his first Oscar for Inception. Kudos also goes to The Kids Are All Right, a brave idea by the writers that totally paid off- a comedy about a family with two moms.

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Who will win: Toy Story 3
Who should win: Toy Story 3

No contest here. Pixar usually wins these, and with a Best Picture nomination, there's nothing stopping the wonderful Toy Story installment from winning. An upset win here is so unimaginable that I don't even know which movie it would come from.

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Who will win: Biutiful
Who should win: ?

There are no popular films in this category this year, which makes it hard to predict, if you even care. In a Better World won the Golden Globe, but with a Best Actor nomination to go along with it and a previous Oscar-nominated director at the helm, I suspect the Spanish-language Biutiful will be the film of choice.

Best Documentary Feature

Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Wasteland

Who will win: Inside Job
Who should win: ?

The most popular documentary of the year (Waiting For "Superman") naturally wasn't nominated. So the Academy will choose the traditional business/political film Inside Job, about the 2008 financial meltdown. An upset could come from the strange art comedy Exit Through the Gift Shop, popular in some circles.

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: Inception

Despite its simplistic music, The Social Network seems poised to win here, unless the royal ballads of The King's Speech pulls an upset. Two years ago, A. R. Rahman pulled off a double win for both Original Score and Original Song for Slumdog Millionaire. Unfortunately, his score for 127 Hours isn't nearly as exciting, so even though he's nominated for both, he will not win either. Of course you could guess my preference here. The music for Inception is the only film that people would actually talk about afterwards: the exciting and suspenseful building themes as the dreams are collapsing? That unmistakeable foghorn noise? It may be too loud at times, but it's still the best and most original movie music this year.

Best Original Song

"Coming Home," Country Strong
"I See the Light," Tangled
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3

Who will win: "Coming Home"
Who should win: "Coming Home"

A strange case this year as there are just four nominees. I'm usually not a country fan, but Gwyneth Paltrow's crooner is easily the best of the lot, and the only one I can imagine being performed live. Disney songs do surprisingly well in this category, and there are two Disney films nominated here. Toy Story 3 is by far the more popular of the two, so if an upset will occur, it will be Randy Newman's end-credits song "We Belong Together."

Best Film Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: The Social Network

One annoying habit the Academy has is to nominate all Best Picture nominees here. There's no way the five best-edited films of the year were also the best dramatic productions! At any rate, 127 Hours and Black Swan are the only ones that show any kind of flair in their editing, each to set specific moods, but since those films don't have the support they need, it will simply be given to The King's Speech to accompany its Best Picture win. My choice goes to the other Picture hopeful, The Social Network. Thanks in part to its snappy editing and brisk pace, there wasn't a single dull moment in the entire film.

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: Inception

This award typically goes to the more technically-inclined film, but I suspect it will go to the beautiful camerawork in The Social Network, a film set largely at Harvard University. An upset could come from my personal choice, Inception, which used different styles and filters to differentiate each level of the dream world, which is like shooting four or five different movies. Of course, it could win for one specific sequence: the gravity-defying hotel hallway where Joseph Gordon-Levitt literally bounces off the walls. The trick of how they pulled that off (no, not all with CGI) is truly Oscar-worthy. Kudos also goes to True Grit for its grand scenery of the Old West, which is truly cinematic royalty.

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

The obvious choice here would be True Grit, but I don't think that will be the case. While they usually choose something more traditional, something the filmmakers actually have to create, last year's award went to Avatar, whose art direction was completely digital. If the Academy is making that kind of switch, it could go to either Inception or Alice in Wonderland, but something tells me those won't win either (they're both blockbusters). Traditional will make a comeback, with the lush visuals of British royalty in the 1930s with The King's Speech. My choice goes to Harry Potter for creating a look totally different from the other films in the series (hard to do with the seventh installment) that is much darker and more personal. We're not in Hogwarts anymore, Toto.

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Who will win: Alice in Wonderland
Who should win: True Grit

The Academy opts for the most spectacular costumes here, the ones that are best to look at. In this case the choice is clear: the colorful marvels of Tim Burton's already-colorful film Alice in Wonderland. However, my choice goes to the more real look of True Grit. An upset could come from The King's Speech, but the costumes there don't really dazzle.

Best Makeup

Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Who will win: The Wolfman
Who should win: The Wolfman

With all three films having their only nomination here, they all pretty much have equal chances of winning. Of course, as the only monster movie of the bunch, The Wolfman has a distinct advantage over the other two. Not to mention that it's done by Rick Baker, pretty much the only celebrity in the makeup field these days. The look of Benicio Del Toro's werewolf is modeled after the original film from 1941.

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Inception

Arguably the only category the general public cares about. As the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, Inception should take the win, and deservedly so: Christopher Nolan is a director who abhors special effects, and so uses them only sparingly, and when absolutely necessary. Thus the visual-effects shots in the film are few, but extra effort is put into them. The dream sequence with the upside-down Paris is the hero shot. Alice in Wonderland and Iron Man 2 also have big, dazzling special effects, but they're both blockbusters, which usually steers the Academy away.

Best Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Tron: Legacy

Some odd choices here this year. (Two Jeff Bridges movies in the same category!) As the only ones nominated for both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, it'll go to either Inception or True Grit, with the former possessing the more stunning sound effects. However, my choice goes to the Tron sequel, which is nothing if not a visual and auditory treat. This being its only nomination, it doesn't stand a chance.

Best Sound Mixing

Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Inception

The only films here that are technically-inclined (meaning that some thought has to actually be put into the sound design) are Inception and Salt. Clearly the former will take it easily.

Best Animated Short

Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Who will win: Day & Night
Who should win: Day & Night

Now I admit, I'm prejudiced here: I've only seen Day & Night, but that's because it's the only one that secured a theatrical release. It's the psychadelic Pixar film that accompanied the also-nominated Toy Story 3. Pixar has won here in the past, and a double win for both films would be beautiful.

Best Live Action Short

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Who will win: The Confession
Who should win: ?

Nobody cares about this award, not even me.

Best Documentary Short

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Who will win: The Warriors of Qiugang
Who should win: ?

This award typically goes to a film set in a far-off country, which it sounds like Qiugang is. Did I mention that nobody cares about this award either?

If you've made it to the end of this list, congratulations! You're as big a geek as I am!
Regardless of how correct my predictions are, all questions will be answered soon. The Academy Awards will be broadcast live at 6:30 pm Sunday night, February 27th, on ABC. And the winner is...

2011 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Greetings, avid moviegoers! Thank you all for being patient in waiting for the inevitable return of Chris the Critic in blog form. I had fun doing the TV segments but I'm back to doing these full-time. (But don't worry, I'm not totally done with TV either. I am in talks to do a monthly segment.)

Well, it's that time of year again, and if you don't know what I mean by that then you're probably reading the wrong blog. It's Oscar season! As usual I follow the films in the running very closely, inspect top-ten lists, study pre-Oscar awards nominees and winners, and look at professionals' nominations predictions. So, I proudly bring you my third annual predictions for the Academy Awards nominations in all the major categories.

One quick note before I begin: I never seem to get any of these predictions right, so I am now allowing myself an alternate film for every category, so I can put in one additional prediction. And Best Picture gets two alternates, because with double the nominees, they're doubly hard to predict.

Best Picture

127 Hours

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

The Social Network

The Town

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Alternates: Blue Valentine, Winter's Bone

There are four shoo-ins here: The Social Network (and if the Oscars were held today, I think this would win), The King's Speech, The Fighter, and the dramedy The Kids Are All Right. Over the summer, saying Inception would get a nomination would sound like fantasy- a dream, if you will- but it's been doing well in the pre-Oscar awards and seems a pretty good lock for a nomination. There's also the strong argument that The Dark Knight not getting nominated for Best Picture two years ago is one of the reasons we now have ten nominees. Toy Story 3 has an uphill battle to get that nomination, but it looks like their hard work is going to pay off- animated films never get nominated, nor do sequels, but this is undeniably one of the best films of the year, not to mention the highest-grossing of the year. Black Swan is not your typical Oscar fare- too dark, too sexual, too weird- but it's expertly made and thrilling to watch, and has a good shot here. The Town is fairly old and Oscar tends to have a short memory, but the best crime movie of the year should still get recognized, even if director Ben Affleck won't be. A lot of professionals are leaving 127 Hours off their lists, probably with the explanation that the movie is really about James Franco's performance. Well, they clearly didn't see the movie, which is a piece of genius from the guy who won Best Picture two years ago, Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire. If it doesn't get the nomination, it sure as hell deserves it. And I went back and forth over True Grit. Only lukewarm critical reception and okay runnings at the box office suggest the film will be mostly forgotten by the Academy, but it is still racking up nominations from other sources. If my list is incorrect, it will most likely be here.

Winter's Bone is a beloved indie film from the summer. It is a lock for a Best Actress nomination, but the Academy may choose to nominate it here, if it can get out of its short-memory hold. Blue Valentine is also a lock for acting awards, but the movie itself looks so incredibly depressing I can't imagine the general public wanting to see it.

Best Director

Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Christopher Nolan, Inception

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

David Fincher, The Social Network

Alternate: David O. Russell, The Fighter

Fincher and Hooper are locks for their beloved films. Aronofsky and Nolan are the picks for more unusual films. And once again I may be betting too heavily on 127 Hours' chances, but when you stop to think about it, how do you create an engaging movie about a man who can't move? It's almost impossible, but Boyle found a way to do it. The film may be hard to watch at times, but it's still masterfully made. If Boyle doesn't get nominated, then Russell will for his great boxing film. It's just that he's relatively unknown, which hurts his chances at a major nomination here.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

Colin Firth, The King's Speech

James Franco, 127 Hours

Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Alternate: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Firth is the favorite to win at this point playing a proud king with a humiliating stutter. Franco is also a lock as the one-man band for the entire film. Eisenberg is pretty young for this category, but no one can deny his screen presence. I went back and forth over Bridges, but since the Western is getting attention, he may get recognized here. He just won last year, which will hurt his chances. And Gosling is pretty much a lock, although the film may end up getting forgotten altogether. There's been surprisingly little attention given to Wahlberg, the lead in his movie, especially considering the attention given the other cast members, but looking at all the other nominations the film is going to get, a Best Actor nomination would seal the deal.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Alternate: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

The locks for this category are Bening, Lawrence, and Portman. Williams should get nominated for her heartrending performance as long as the film doesn't get forgotten. And since her costar (and onscreen wife) will surely get a nod, Moore's chances are limited, but she's a previous nominee and her work in the film is solid and emotionally raw. A twofer in a major category like this would be more than all right. And Kidman is definitely in the running as a greiving mother, but strong competition may keep her crying.

There's also been talk that Hailee Steinfeld, who's campaigning for Supporting Actress for True Grit, may get a surprise nomination here. She is the female lead in that movie, but because of her age, she's much more likely to be included in the lower award.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Jeremy Renner, The Town

Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Alternate: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Bale is a lock here, and so far is the favorite to win. The Batman actor has an impressive resume reaching back to childhood and he is overdue for his first nomination. Renner is also a good bet as an unstable bank robber. Garfield's age is against him, but his performance as the betrayed Facebook co-founder brings us the film's most memorable scene. And Rush is also a lock as the eccentric speech therapist. Rockwell is the dark horse here, and he's included mostly because I had trouble thinking of who else would fit. He's a strong actor who's also overdue for a nomination, and Conviction is pure Oscar bait material. The Wall Street sequel wasn't very well-received, but Douglas won his Oscar for the original film and is said to be the best part of this one.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Alternate: Mila Kunis, Black Swan

Bonham Carter is a lock here, even though her performance isn't exactly Oscar-worthy in my mind. Adams are Leo are also pretty good bets, and believe it or not, two nominations for the same film is not too uncommon for this category. Although if it happens, they will hurt each other's chances of winning. Steinfeld wowed everyone who saw her performance as a little girl in a man's world, and she is a lock, assuming she won't get upgraded to lead Actress status. Animal Kingdom is a foreign indie film, little-seen in the States, and Weaver's popularity stops at the critics' circle. I hope she doesn't get nominated, although signs point to it being so. If it doesn't happen, then Kunis' memorable performance as a young, partying ballerina is the perfect foil for Portman's high-strung character, and allows us to forget her That 70's Show fame.

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours

The Social Network

The Town

Toy Story 3

Winter's Bone

Alternate: True Grit

The Social Network has all but a lock on the win here, for Aaron Sorkin's crackling whiplash of dialogue. Pixar films usually get a writing nomination, and Toy Story 3 is one of their best films. (And I know it's a sequel, but shouldn't it be for Original Screenplay?) The Town is also a pretty good bet, especially considering Ben Affleck already has an Oscar for writing. A nomination here for Winter's Bone will nicely complement the inevitable Actress nomination, while the script for 127 Hours is not what you'd expect after hearing the true story. The previous winner for Slumdog Millionaire should get nominated again. And the Academy are huge fans of the Coen brothers, so their adaptation of True Grit may just earn them a nod here, although I sense people are cooling on the film.

Best Original Screenplay

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King's Speech

Alternate: Another Year

This race is difficult to predict the winner, but there are several favorites for the nominations. All five picks here should also get a Best Picture nomination, which will nicely complment it. (I'm particularly excited for Inception. It's being left out of all the acting races, and has a good chance here for one of the most original movies in years.) Another Year is pure Oscar bait, but the film entered the race really late and I think will end up being forgotten.

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon

The Illusionist

Toy Story 3

Alternate: Tangled

I usually don't predict this award, but with only three nominees this year I thought I'd give it a try. Obviously Toy Story 3 is a lock to win here- Pixar films usually are- but Dragon was surprisingly well-recieved by critics, despite it being pretty average. The Illusionist is a pleasant little French film that no one saw in the States, so it will naturally be nominated here. But if the Academy comes to their senses, they'll ignore the foreign trash and nominate the old-fashioned Disney-princess musical Tangled. (The Oscars were very much pro-Disney throughout the 80's and 90's.)

Well, that's everything! The nominations for the 83rd annual Academy Awards will be announced in the early morning hours of Tuesday, January 25th, while the show itself will be the night of Sunday, February 27th. Be sure to tune in and not be left out of the loop! After the actual nominations are out I'll be back to see how well I did. See you at the movies!

Popcorn Pick 10-8-10

Two new releases this week, both look unsatisfying: Life As We Know It, starring Katherine Heigl and Transformers' Josh Duhamel, is a romantic dramedy about a mismatched pair assigned to take care of a baby girl after the parents pass away. Fans of Heigl will surely flock in droves, but the film is utterly predictable. The other new release is Disney's Secretariat, with Diane Lane and John Malkovich, about an underdog racehorse who won the Triple Crown. Unique in that racehorse movies are rare these days, but they're rare because no one cares.

So I'm gonna choose an old movie that you may have missed these last few weeks. If you saw Gone Baby Gone, you know Ben Affleck is a competent director, even if you're not a fan of his acting. He follows up that brilliant crime drama with what appears to be another one: The Town, set in his native Boston about a band of bank robbers, one of whom falls in love with a young teller they kidnapped and wants to go straight. The glittery, awards-friendly cast includes Affleck himself, Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), and Rebecca Hall (Vicky Cristina Barcelona). Affleck also co-wrote, making it his brainchild.

Popcorn Pick 10-1-10

It's the Facebook movie! By that, of course, I mean The Social Network, the highly-anticipated film about Mark Zuckerberg, the kid who created the hugely popular website Facebook and ended up entangled in a legal battle after his friends claim he stole their ideas. People will tell you over and over again that the movie isn't actually about Facebook, but the average viewer won't listen or care: the movie looks awesome anyway. And surprisingly enough, it's also generating a lot of Oscar buzz, surely the first Facebook-themed movie to do so. It's directed by David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) and written by Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing). The cast includes Jesse Eisenberg (Zombieland), Andrew Garfield (the guy set to be the next Spider-Man), and Justin Timberlake.