Thursday, February 17, 2011

2011 Oscar Winners Predictions

Is it that time already?
Well, no, the Oscars aren't until Sunday the 27th, but I can still get excited about them early!
It may be a little too early to make these predictions (officially, the voting polls haven't even closed yet), but I think the race is set and no dramatic changes are going to happen between now and then that will change the outcomes.
The numbers for the nominees go as follows: 12 for The King's Speech (the most this year; it has a shot at breaking the current record of 11 wins), 10 for True Grit, 8 each for The Social Network and Inception, 7 for The Fighter, 6 for 127 Hours, 5 each for Black Swan and Toy Story 3, 4 each for The Kids Are All Right and Winter's Bone, and 3 for Alice in Wonderland. Every other film gets only 1 or 2 nominations.
This is my third annual Oscar winners predictions. As usual, I choose the winners in every category. I divide my picks in two: who I think will end up winning and who I think deserves to win. And as always I value your comments and input!

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Toy Story 3

These days the Best Picture race is hard to predict. Ten films is a lot! If any animated film could win Best Picture, it's the beloved Pixar sequel Toy Story 3, which has earned instant classic status, universal acclaim, and the unique distinction of being the highest-grossing movie of last year. (And that's a year that included a Harry Potter and a Twilight movie!) And it has the special honor of only being the third animated film to be nominated for this award, especially impressive considering that it's a sequel, and that the first two Toy Story films weren't nominated. Unfortunately, the Academy is still prejudiced against animation. So while I'm convinced it will happen someday, it won't be this year. My other favorite to win is, of course, Inception, the head-trip action/sci-fi that wowed audiences all over. While it's well-represented this year, it really doesn't stand a chance winning any major awards. 127 Hours and The Kids Are All Right are both fantastic films in their own rights, but there is heavy competition this year and they'll likely be forgotten. Despite its ten nominations, there isn't a whole lot of love going on for True Grit or the Coen brothers. The race is really between two films: the early favorite, The Social Network, and the late-show-stopper The King's Speech. While I believe Network to be the superior film, it seems like the table has turned and they will go with the more traditional (and British) choice of Speech. It has more nominations- the most this year, in fact- and the majority of the Academy voters are older folks, who probably don't "get" a lot of the characters in Network.

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

Who will win: David Fincher
Who should win: David Fincher

With the playing field split between The King's Speech and The Social Network, I forsee a unique opportunity: give the more popular film the Director award and the traditional Oscar fare Best Picture, supposedly so everyone's happy. Still, Hooper could upset here. But seriously, Fincher does deserve the award for pulling off one of the most-talked-about movies of the year and actually making it good. Aronofsky also gets kudos for creating a dark and sexual mood in his film, but it's one that the Academy doesn't give big awards to.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Who will win: Colin Firth
Who should win: James Franco

This is an interesting category: we have the potential for an extremely rare back-to-back win. Jeff Bridges, of course, won last year and is nominated again for a pretty similar role. (John Wayne won Best Actor for the same role in the original True Grit in 1969.) While people love his performance, he's not the one that's likely to win. It will probably go to Firth (another back-to-back nominee) for his stuttering monarch as support for the film has skyrocketed recently. While Firth was exceptional in the part- in fact I think his scenes with Geoffrey Rush are the best in the movie- he's not my personal choice. I choose Franco for essentially being a one-man movie as real-life hiker Aron Ralston, the guy who got stuck in a canyon by a rock and had to cut off his own arm to survive. Very few actors can have as much screen time alone as he did and pull it off, let alone not being able to move for the majority of that time. Of course, Eisenberg also deserves kudos for his career-changing performance as the founder of Facebook, a rude and forward-thinking genius who commands the screen.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Who will win: Annette Bening
Who should win: Natalie Portman

This one was a head-scratcher. As it is with so many awards this year, the playing field is between two strong contenders: Bening and Portman. At this point it could go either way, but I think they will ultimately choose Bening, the early favorite as a stressed-out lesbian mom trying to keep her family from falling apart. The scene where she realizes her wife has been sleeping with a man is one of the most painful shots in the movie. Portman, on the other hand, plays a ballerina trying to keep her mind from falling apart as she begins hallucinating before a big show. The whole movie follows her on this descent into madness. It was hard for me to choose which one actually deserved the award; I finally came to the conclusion that Portman's role was more difficult to master. Of course, if there is a tie, I would be delighted.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Who will win: Christian Bale
Who should win: Christian Bale

Bale, the Batman actor, is known for diving into a part completely, and he went all Method on us again for this role as a crack-addicted former boxer. He will deservedly win his first Oscar. Any actor who can control his weight as well as he can deserves some kind of recognition. Rush could still upset as his film is still going strong. Kudos also goes to Renner (the third back-to-back nominee, although he was up for Best Actor last year) for an explosive performance as a bank robber on the edge, and for getting his film's only nomination. (Why no love for The Town?)

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Who will win: Melissa Leo
Who should win: Hailee Steinfeld

Leo is the favorite to win here as a mama grizzly set on protecting her large family. She was the biggest, and best, surprise of the film. However, my vote goes to the young Steinfeld for holding her own, and then some, in the man's world of the Old West. On paper, one would have to wonder if there was even a girl out there who could play the part. She truly is a revelation. Unfortunately, her age is a big deterrant with the Academy. If there's an upset, it will likely go to Bonham Carter for her buttoned-down performance as the Queen. I'm a big fan of Adams, but her performance is only noteworthy when you compare it to her usual roles. Has anyone in America seen Animal Kingdom?

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: 127 Hours

With the writing awards, there is no need to split the field, so both of the Academy's favorite films can win. In the Adapted section, The Social Network will easily snag it for Aaron Sorkin's biting dialogue. While I'm a fan of that film, my vote goes to 127 Hours. How do you write a good movie about a guy who can't move? It's not easy to do, but they constructed the most unique film of the year in the process. It dives into his mind and forces viewers to ask the question, what would you do in the same situation? Kudos also goes to Toy Story 3; it's just too bad it took them this long to come out with the third film in the series.

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Inception

Again, the Academy's favorite will win here: the very traditional screenplay for the very down-to-earth King's Speech. My vote goes to the most original film of the year, one which blended science fiction, suspense, drama, and exciting action setpieces to produce a genuine hit. If the Academy weren't so averse to blockbusters, they would hand Christopher Nolan his first Oscar for Inception. Kudos also goes to The Kids Are All Right, a brave idea by the writers that totally paid off- a comedy about a family with two moms.

Best Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Who will win: Toy Story 3
Who should win: Toy Story 3

No contest here. Pixar usually wins these, and with a Best Picture nomination, there's nothing stopping the wonderful Toy Story installment from winning. An upset win here is so unimaginable that I don't even know which movie it would come from.

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Who will win: Biutiful
Who should win: ?

There are no popular films in this category this year, which makes it hard to predict, if you even care. In a Better World won the Golden Globe, but with a Best Actor nomination to go along with it and a previous Oscar-nominated director at the helm, I suspect the Spanish-language Biutiful will be the film of choice.

Best Documentary Feature

Exit Through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Wasteland

Who will win: Inside Job
Who should win: ?

The most popular documentary of the year (Waiting For "Superman") naturally wasn't nominated. So the Academy will choose the traditional business/political film Inside Job, about the 2008 financial meltdown. An upset could come from the strange art comedy Exit Through the Gift Shop, popular in some circles.

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: Inception

Despite its simplistic music, The Social Network seems poised to win here, unless the royal ballads of The King's Speech pulls an upset. Two years ago, A. R. Rahman pulled off a double win for both Original Score and Original Song for Slumdog Millionaire. Unfortunately, his score for 127 Hours isn't nearly as exciting, so even though he's nominated for both, he will not win either. Of course you could guess my preference here. The music for Inception is the only film that people would actually talk about afterwards: the exciting and suspenseful building themes as the dreams are collapsing? That unmistakeable foghorn noise? It may be too loud at times, but it's still the best and most original movie music this year.

Best Original Song

"Coming Home," Country Strong
"I See the Light," Tangled
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3

Who will win: "Coming Home"
Who should win: "Coming Home"

A strange case this year as there are just four nominees. I'm usually not a country fan, but Gwyneth Paltrow's crooner is easily the best of the lot, and the only one I can imagine being performed live. Disney songs do surprisingly well in this category, and there are two Disney films nominated here. Toy Story 3 is by far the more popular of the two, so if an upset will occur, it will be Randy Newman's end-credits song "We Belong Together."

Best Film Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: The Social Network

One annoying habit the Academy has is to nominate all Best Picture nominees here. There's no way the five best-edited films of the year were also the best dramatic productions! At any rate, 127 Hours and Black Swan are the only ones that show any kind of flair in their editing, each to set specific moods, but since those films don't have the support they need, it will simply be given to The King's Speech to accompany its Best Picture win. My choice goes to the other Picture hopeful, The Social Network. Thanks in part to its snappy editing and brisk pace, there wasn't a single dull moment in the entire film.

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Who will win: The Social Network
Who should win: Inception

This award typically goes to the more technically-inclined film, but I suspect it will go to the beautiful camerawork in The Social Network, a film set largely at Harvard University. An upset could come from my personal choice, Inception, which used different styles and filters to differentiate each level of the dream world, which is like shooting four or five different movies. Of course, it could win for one specific sequence: the gravity-defying hotel hallway where Joseph Gordon-Levitt literally bounces off the walls. The trick of how they pulled that off (no, not all with CGI) is truly Oscar-worthy. Kudos also goes to True Grit for its grand scenery of the Old West, which is truly cinematic royalty.

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Who will win: The King's Speech
Who should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

The obvious choice here would be True Grit, but I don't think that will be the case. While they usually choose something more traditional, something the filmmakers actually have to create, last year's award went to Avatar, whose art direction was completely digital. If the Academy is making that kind of switch, it could go to either Inception or Alice in Wonderland, but something tells me those won't win either (they're both blockbusters). Traditional will make a comeback, with the lush visuals of British royalty in the 1930s with The King's Speech. My choice goes to Harry Potter for creating a look totally different from the other films in the series (hard to do with the seventh installment) that is much darker and more personal. We're not in Hogwarts anymore, Toto.

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Who will win: Alice in Wonderland
Who should win: True Grit

The Academy opts for the most spectacular costumes here, the ones that are best to look at. In this case the choice is clear: the colorful marvels of Tim Burton's already-colorful film Alice in Wonderland. However, my choice goes to the more real look of True Grit. An upset could come from The King's Speech, but the costumes there don't really dazzle.

Best Makeup

Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

Who will win: The Wolfman
Who should win: The Wolfman

With all three films having their only nomination here, they all pretty much have equal chances of winning. Of course, as the only monster movie of the bunch, The Wolfman has a distinct advantage over the other two. Not to mention that it's done by Rick Baker, pretty much the only celebrity in the makeup field these days. The look of Benicio Del Toro's werewolf is modeled after the original film from 1941.

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Inception

Arguably the only category the general public cares about. As the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch, Inception should take the win, and deservedly so: Christopher Nolan is a director who abhors special effects, and so uses them only sparingly, and when absolutely necessary. Thus the visual-effects shots in the film are few, but extra effort is put into them. The dream sequence with the upside-down Paris is the hero shot. Alice in Wonderland and Iron Man 2 also have big, dazzling special effects, but they're both blockbusters, which usually steers the Academy away.

Best Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Tron: Legacy

Some odd choices here this year. (Two Jeff Bridges movies in the same category!) As the only ones nominated for both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing, it'll go to either Inception or True Grit, with the former possessing the more stunning sound effects. However, my choice goes to the Tron sequel, which is nothing if not a visual and auditory treat. This being its only nomination, it doesn't stand a chance.

Best Sound Mixing

Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Who will win: Inception
Who should win: Inception

The only films here that are technically-inclined (meaning that some thought has to actually be put into the sound design) are Inception and Salt. Clearly the former will take it easily.

Best Animated Short

Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

Who will win: Day & Night
Who should win: Day & Night

Now I admit, I'm prejudiced here: I've only seen Day & Night, but that's because it's the only one that secured a theatrical release. It's the psychadelic Pixar film that accompanied the also-nominated Toy Story 3. Pixar has won here in the past, and a double win for both films would be beautiful.

Best Live Action Short

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Who will win: The Confession
Who should win: ?

Nobody cares about this award, not even me.

Best Documentary Short

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

Who will win: The Warriors of Qiugang
Who should win: ?

This award typically goes to a film set in a far-off country, which it sounds like Qiugang is. Did I mention that nobody cares about this award either?

If you've made it to the end of this list, congratulations! You're as big a geek as I am!
Regardless of how correct my predictions are, all questions will be answered soon. The Academy Awards will be broadcast live at 6:30 pm Sunday night, February 27th, on ABC. And the winner is...