Sunday, February 28, 2010

2010 Oscar Winners Predictions

This year's Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most memorable in recent years. With many unusual nominees will come several unusual winners, and so with that comes my slightly bold winners predictions. I'm very excited for this year, what with two hosts, ten Best Picture nominees, and countless stars slated to attend. It will surely live up to its name of Hollywood's biggest night.
Below is listed every category, who I think will win, and my personal opinion on who I think deserves to win. As always, I would love to see comments on this post, both before and after the ceremony. I will be doing a follow-up post in the week following the big night.
Now, without any further ado...

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Up in the Air

This race is large and features many good films, but it's really down to just two: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Even at this late hour, I can see the pendulum swinging in either direction, but I will have to side with the big ol' sci-fi film with all the blue creatures. It's certainly got the box office on its side (in case you've been living in a cave for the last few months, Avatar has replaced James Cameron's own Titanic as the highest-grossing film of all time) and boasts simply the best technical acheivements ever put on celluloid. It wasn't universally loved by critics, but the Academy loves it enough to let it follow in Titanic's footsteps and bestow it with the biggest prize in cinema. The Hurt Locker is definitely deserving of the award- I do believe, after all, that it is one of the best war films ever made- but its failure at the box office and its very difficult competition will ultimately be its undoing. After reviewing the options very closely, I have decided Up in the Air, the dramedy starring George Clooney is my favorite of the bunch. It's the single most enjoyable film to watch, with equal parts laughs and tears. Unfortunately, the film has lost a lot of steam over the past few weeks and may end up being forgotten altogether come Oscar night. Films with long shots like Up, District 9, and The Blind Side will have to settle with just being nominated, which in this case truly is an honor. Inglourious Basterds and Precious could have been front-runners in other years, but have a better chance in the acting categories. An Education? A Serious Man? Seriously? These films really weren't even good enough to make the ballot. They better be grateful for the new 10-film system, otherwise they wouldn't be in the dugout with films like these. Whether or not the Academy continues with the 10-film system remains to be seen, depending on whether or not they consider this year to be a success.

Best Director

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow
Who should win: Kathryn Bigelow

Once again, it's a contest between ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow for the win. The Academy simply won't be able to resist giving it to a well-deserving woman for the first time in history. Her gender aside, she truly deserves it for crafting an intimate, intense, and terrifying portrait of war that actually mimics what war feels like in real life. Sure, Cameron had to invent a few new technologies in order to get his epic made, but he already has one of these. Tarantino is also deserving of a Golden Boy, but while his characters are addictingly watchable, they're also very emotionally distant. Reitman is talented, but the film has a better shot in the writing category. Daniels is only the second African American to be nominated here, and while his leadership made Precious something special, his impressive competition will keep him from winning this year.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Who will win: Jeff Bridges
Who should win: Jeremy Renner

This being his fifth nomination, Bridges will win more for a stellar career than for a stellar performance (even though he was very good and fearless as an alcoholic washed-up country singer). The movie itself is simply so-so, and as such, I can't generate much support for it. Freeman is the only one here to play a real person, but his nomination is really only here to round out the category. I loved Clooney in Up in the Air, he was very genuine and you were really rooting for him, but my vote goes to Renner, whose career-making performance as a solider addicted to the adrenaline of near-death experiences makes him the perfect antihero for this fantastic war film.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Who will win: Sandra Bullock
Who should win: Gabourey Sidibe

This race is really between the Oscar freshman Bullock and the Oscar senior Streep. Streep was good as Julia Child, but I felt her performance was more caricature than true-life, even though she does manage some good emotional moments. Bullock is good as a tough matriarch, but definitely not Oscar-worthy. She'll win for making The Blind Side a huge hit and for finally doing something different with her career. Mulligan might be the best part of An Education, a film full of great performances, but my vote goes to the newcomer Sidibe, whose role as Precious was tragic and empowering, and made you think twice about how you treat people.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Who will win: Christoph Waltz
Who should win: Christoph Waltz

Everyone going in to see Inglourious Basterds expected Brad Pitt to be the biggest star and the best part of the movie. And everyone coming out of that movie was talking not about Pitt's low-wattage commando, but Waltz's incredible turn as a Nazi Jew-hunter. His performance really turned the movie around, and has proved he can take on virtually any role. In another year, I would be rooting for Tucci's very bold performance as a serial killer or Harrelson's emotionally withdrawn soldier. But Waltz has won every pre-Oscar award so far, and he will easily win come Sunday.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

Who will win: Mo'Nique
Who should win: Anna Kendrick

At this point, nothing can stop the power train that is Mo'Nique. Her alarming turn as an abusive mother is completely transformative and haunting. While I recognize the power of her performance, I can't vote for such an unpleasant part of the film, and will instead turn to the year's biggest surprise performance, from the young Kendrick, who more than held her own against George Clooney. She provides the film with its best moments. Cruz, Farmiga, and Gyllenhaal, while all good (Gyllenhaal was particularly good; she was that film's emotional center) don't stand much of a chance here and are mostly just filler nominations.

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

What will win: Up in the Air
What should win: District 9

This award should go to Jason Reitman for the funny-sad script for Up in the Air. While the story is very good- and Oscar-worthy- it's really going to win just because it is the film's only real shot at success. It'll get shut out in the acting, directing, and producing categories, and will thus be rewarded for writing. My personal vote goes to the alien allegory District 9. Even though it's adapted- based on director Neill Blomkamp's own short film- it's one of the most original films of the year and really had people talking. Precious might pull an upset for its incredibly moving script.

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker may very well sweep the Oscars this year, and so even if it doesn't win Best Picture, it will win here for its suspenseful take on the Iraq war. Personally, I think much of the film's success is due not to the script, but to the actors and director. No one writes anything quite like Quentin Tarantino, and so he gets my vote for weaving together several diverse storylines and many characters to create a cohesive picture that never feels long or slow, despite many long scenes of just dialogue. I love Pixar's stuff, but some parts of Up's storyline feel cliche. The Messenger is a very unique story, and seems very moving. (I haven't seen it yet.) A Serious Man is really just standard Coen brothers fare, which means it's bizarre, confusing, and ultimately pointless.

Best Original Score

Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Avatar had a lot to prove to all of its haters when it came out: people thought the film would rely solely on its amazing special effects to get by, but the film surpassed almost all expectations, including in this category. The score is sweeping, epic, emotional, and exciting. Up could pull an upset here, and I would be happy to see that win, too: take another look at the wordless montage at the beginning of the film that uses only visuals and music to tell the heartbreaking story of Carl and his beloved wife Ellie.

Best Original Song

"Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take It All," Nine
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart

What will win: "The Weary Kind"
What should win: "The Weary Kind"

Crazy Heart's theme song is the only listenable song in this selection. The quiet country tune will easily win this sorry excuse for an Academy Award category this year.

Best Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: Avatar

Avatar may win Best Picture, but I think The Hurt Locker will pick this one up for upping the suspense and for adding in a few very cinematic slo-mo shots amidst all the realistic action. My vote, however, goes to Cameron's own editing for Avatar, since the film was put together in a way that makes sure it's remembered for years to come.

Best Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: The Hurt Locker

Hurt Locker used handheld cameras that gave the film a vague documentary feel that put the viewer in the Iraqi desert with the soldiers, so that we could feel the intensity right along with them. You could almost feel the hot sun on your eyes. It gets my vote, as well as it surely will the Academy's.

Best Makeup

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

What will win: Star Trek
What should win: Star Trek

Victoria has royalty and legendary sideburns, and Il Divo has Italian guys, but Star Trek has bald Romulans with tattoos, pointy-eared Vulcans, and lots of post-fight injury wounds. It's definitely the most showy makeup of the three, and will boldy go where no Trek film has gone before- to the stage at the Academy Awards.

Best Costume Design

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

What will win: The Young Victoria
What should win: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Royalty always wins here. (Witness past winners Marie Antoinette and The Duchess.) Victoria follows in that tradition by showing off glamorous dresses the whole film through. My vote, however, goes to the wacky contraptions of Terry Gilliam's Doctor Parnassus. This world was hard to recreate from someone's imagination, but it all looks real, and the costumes ground the characters in reality.

Best Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Give Avatar one last peek and you'll see why it deserves this award: every frame is so intricate, so detailed, it seriously looks like a living, breathing world full of blue creatures and bioluminescent plants. The Academy may not like how almost all of its art direction is tied directly with visual effects, and in that case, Nine will probably pull an upset for setting the mood of the '50s quite nicely.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

This one's been decided for months now. District 9 and Star Trek both have very impressive special effects, but Avatar invented a new method of motion-capture and immersed the viewer in a purely digital world. Everything looks incredibly real, and there's no stopping this trophy from landing in blue hands.

Best Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Star Trek and Up had extremely good sound effects, but nothing can compete with Avatar's reign over the computer world. The film's visuals were amazing, yes, but it needed believable sound in order to complete the picture.

Best Sound Mixing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

I'm learning gradually about the difference between the two sound Oscars. This one covers the film's overall sound, as opposed to individual effects, but Avatar is still the most impressive in that area. Possible upsets could come from The Hurt Locker, which painted a perfect picture of Baghdad, or from Inglourious Basterds, which effectively used silence to highten suspense in pivotal moments.

Best Animated Feature

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

What will win: Up
What should win: Up

Pixar's gem Up not only has the most nominations of the bunch (including an extremely rare Best Picture nom), but it's the best-made, the most watchable, and the most original of any of these films. No other film comes close. An upset could come in the form of Mr. Fox, but this is very unlikely.

Best Foreign Language Film

Ajami
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
The Milk of Sorrow
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon

What will win: The White Ribbon
What should win: ?

None of these films are very popular with American audiences, making this race hard to predict this year. The White Ribbon won the Palme d'Or at Cannes and is the most artsy of the bunch, so that's my guess.

Best Documentary Feature

Burmja VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

What will win: The Cove
What should win: ?

An upset by the popular Food, Inc. is possible, but the obvious winner here is The Cove, which has wowed critics and audiences alike. Plus, it's a documentary that plays out like a thriller- exactly what the people want.

Best Live Action Short

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

What will win: Kavi
What should win: ?

I really don't know anything about these films. I choose Kavi simply because it was the most easily accessible film; if I can find it, other people can watch it.

Best Animated Short

French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death

What will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
What should win: ?

There are lots of good choices here with some impressive animation, but the award will go once again to Wallace and Gromit for charming kids and adults alike across the globe.

Best Documentary Short

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin

What will win: Music by Prudence
What should win: ?

Honestly, I don't really care about this category. If they pre-tape this award being given out, I will declare the producers of the show geniuses.

That's all of 'em. Are you as excited as I am? Probably not. But you should watch the Oscars anyway because love 'em or hate 'em, they're always interesting, funny, and always manage to generate conversation. Once again, the 82nd annual Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 7th, at 6:00 pm. on ABC. See who goes home with the gold along with the rest of the country at this already-historic show.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

2010 Oscar Nominations, Part Two

2010 Oscar Nominations
Part Two

Continuing down the list of this year's Academy Awards nominations, we see some odd choices in the technical categories. The Academy indeed has a mind of its own, separate from the moviegoing public.

Best Original Score

Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

For some viewers, this is their favorite category. The musical score often has a life of its own that can enhance the mood or even change the entire meaning of a scene. Fantastic's and Up's scores are upbeat and whimsical, Sherlock's is actiony classical, and Avatar's is epic and emotional. I was actually surprised The Hurt Locker was nominated here, as I remember that film not having much of a score, just tone-setters and screeching suspense-builders. My money's on Avatar, or maybe Up.

Best Original Song

"Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take It All," Nine
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart

This category is a major disappointment this year. Not a single song here is featured on the radio, or is even very well-known. One is from an obscure French musical- and is in French, naturally; one is Marion Cotillard's number from a musical flop; not one but two are from the dreary Disney revamp of traditional animated musicals; and one is a slow country drawl from a little-seen indie. "The Weary Kind" is the only song that isn't cringe-inducing while you listen to it, so it will easily win here. (It also kinda sounds like Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler," whose snub last year is already legendary.)

Best Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

This race can sometimes be difficult to predict, as good editing requires that no one notice it. Basterds' nomination is curious, as the film has several long scenes of dialogue that make editing minimal and almost invisible. This award usually squares up with Best Picture (as editing is the way one views the overall film; editing has to be good in order for the film to be good), so it'll either be Avatar or The Hurt Locker, the two current front-runners.

Best Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Some interesting choices here too. Avatar drips of epic camera work, The Hurt Locker's handheld cameras put the viewer in the Iraqi desert with our heroes, Harry Potter has an ashen look to the piece that reflects the dark times these characters now live in, and the foreign film The White Ribbon is in crisp black and white. I'm not sure why Basterds is here either, but I'm glad it is; the more nominations, the glouriouser.

Best Makeup

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Star Trek is the only one here that makes sense: it features dozens of aliens whose faces all look totally real. (Witness Eric Bana as villainous Nero.) Victoria, I'm guessing is for aging its characters, or possibly just for putting lots of facial hair on all its male actors. The foreign film Il Divo is based on a true story, so it's either for getting its actors to look like real people or for aging them realistically. I think Star Trek will take it. (I really hope it does. This film deserved more Oscar love than it's gotten.)

Best Costume Design

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

They've got the glamorous period pieces in Bright Star, Coco, and Victoria. Nine is all about the glamour of Hollywood and the movies, and Parnassus is unique fantasy. This award always goes to the costumes which are the most noticable, so it should be either Bright Star or Victoria.

Best Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

These films all benefit from their look, be it establishing a certain time period (Sherlock, Victoria) or creating fantasy worlds in a computer (Avatar, Parnassus). As the film that took the longest to make and thus, is the most detailed, I'm betting on the sci-fi epic Avatar.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Only three nominees here despite there being copious amounts of visual-effects films come out this year. Luckily, all three have extremely impressive special effects: Star Trek brought forth a whole new kind of Trek with different looks for aliens, spacecraft, and, yes, planet Vulcan; and District 9, despite largely being made to look like a faux documentary, has incredibly vivid and detailed- not to mention disgusting- visual effects of the aliens. Look at any scene where they interact with humans and you'll think that they're real. Sadly, while these two films are worthy, they will both fall to the mighty Avatar for the creation of a brand-new motion capture technique and totally immersive CGI worlds. The film gets plusses for revitalizing 3-D technology, and making it a true experience separate from the 2-D version.

Best Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

Mix of different stuff here. It will probably go to one of the sci-fi films, Avatar or Star Trek (I naturally give the edge to Avatar) or the animated Up, where all the sounds have to be made from scratch.

Best Sound Mixing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Still not entirely sure why there are two sound Oscars. Once again, this will probably go to one of the sci-fi films, probably Avatar, although Transformers has some very impressive sound.

Best Foreign Language Film

Ajami
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
The Milk of Sorrow
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon

I don't know much about these films, only how much buzz they've conjured up. As the only film here nominated in any other category (Cinematography), The White Ribbon will probably take it. It also won the extremely prestigious Palme d'Or award at Cannes. Un Prophete may pull an upset; it's popular with some American audiences.

Best Documentary Feature

Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

Some very interesting-looking stuff here offering new perspectives on old subjects. While I'm sure any film is worthy, The Cove is by far the most popular and will win it easily. It's about the slaughtering of dolphins in Japan and how the documentary crew had to break several laws and risk their lives to get the footage of it.

Best Live Action Short

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

I don't know much about these films. Kavi looks very dramatic; it's a film about a young slave boy trying to escape.

Best Animated Short

French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death

Most notable snub here: Pixar's Partly Cloudy, which ran theatrically in front of Up. Shame on you, Oscar. All of these have impressive animation and unique (if not always funny) storylines. Loaf and Death should win, as the Academy has a love affair with the claymation Wallace and Gromit films. (Two previous shorts and the feature, The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, have won Oscars.)

Best Documentary Short

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin

Sorry, I really don't know anything about these films apart from their titles. The Last Truck sounds relevant enough for the win. If the Academy wants to attract viewers, upgrading to ten Best Picture nominees is a good start, but I would recommend just getting rid of this category altogether.

Well, that's all of them. Look out for more postings concerning Oscar before the ceremony, including my much-anticipated winners predictions. Once again, the ceremony will be at 6:30 pm Sunday, March 7th on ABC, with dual hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin. Be sure to watch!

Monday, February 8, 2010

2010 Oscar Nominations, Part One

2010 Oscar Nominations
Part One

The nominations for this year's Academy Awards were announced bright and early Tuesday morning, and if you had a shred of sanity in you, you were sleeping through it and waited to hear the results from online when you woke up. Well, I'm not sane; I was up before the sun rose with a smile on my face watching the press conference, jumping up and down at all the good news.
Yeah, Star Trek didn't get nominated for Best Picture, but I guess I didn't really expect it to be. It wasn't totally forgotten, though: it got four technical nominations, including Best Visual Effects. Other notable snubs in all categories: Where the Wild Things Are, Public Enemies, It's Complicated, The Informant!, Angels & Demons, The Hangover, Terminator: Salvation, Michael Jackson's This Is It, etc.
The jump to ten Best Picture nominees wasn't the only new thing this year: I got two categories correct in my predictions! So now that you know what an expert I am on the subject, let's jump right in to this year's nominations, complete with my witty commentary.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Guessed correctly: 7
Incorrect guesses: Invictus, A Single Man, Star Trek
Instead of: The Blind Side, District 9, A Serious Man

So lots of surprises in this category. Just the way I like it. Yeah, Star Trek failed to get nominated here. (In fact, it failed to get any major nominations.) But there's still plenty to like here. I see this category split neatly in half. Five movies- Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air- are serious contenders and have at least a fighting chance at the prize. These five were also nominated for Best Director. Each of these movies has won some best-film prize at some festival or awards show before now. All received multiple nominations, with Avatar and Hurt Locker leading the pack with a whopping nine noms each. (Basterds got eight.) The other five movies- The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, A Serious Man, and Up- only got nominated due to the new ten-film system. The most obvious dark horses here are the gory sci-fi thriller District 9 and the whimsical computer-animated film Up. These are definitely not Oscar's favorites, but they are critically acclaimed and loved by the Academy. The Blind Side is a simple little film, but it was a big hit and a crowd-pleaser, and thus won over the experts for this race. I'm also really glad that the low-key indie films are considered dark horses this year, as opposed to front-runners. It's also clear when you tally it up that these movies are just kind of thrown in: both Blind Side and Serious Man got only two nominations apiece, including Best Picture. That hasn't happened since the 1930's. (Education got three.) Up got a pretty decent five nominations total, but one of them is Best Animated Feature, which it will win there so it won't feel too bad about losing here. It also has the distinction of being the second animated film to ever be nominated for Best Picture.
At this point, Avatar and Hurt Locker are pretty much neck-in-neck. This may change in the coming weeks; I'll let you know a more precise winner's prediction as we get closer to the date.

Best Director

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Guessed correctly: 5

The first time I have ever correctly guessed all the nominees in any category. I am excited about this award; some very talented directors have made the list. I'm psyched Tarantino has another shot at it, and if you haven't heard already, Cameron and Bigelow used to be married. I'd say either of them could win it, but I give the edge to Bigelow, who has now become the fourth woman in history to be nominated for this award, and would be the first to win it. Of course, her gender is the last reason she deserves it: The Hurt Locker is incredibly suspenseful, funny, and feels very real the whole way through.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Guessed correctly: 5

Another category guessed completely correctly. Yay me! I haven't seen all these movies, so I can't be sure which one truly deserves it. If it was up to me, I'd say either Clooney for mixing whip-smart comedy and true emotion or Renner for letting us peer into the mind of this deranged solider addicted to war. However, it seems that Bridges is set to win after four previous nominations. Freeman's the only person here who plays a real person, but strangely, he's barely a blip on the radar, as is Clint Eastwood's rugby film.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Guessed correctly: 4
Incorrect guess: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria
Instead of: Helen Mirren, The Last Station

I was aware of The Last Station and its Oscar potential, but I left it off my predictions altogether because it has failed to get a wide release and was being ignored by many other organizations. Three of these women play real people- Bullock, Mirren, and Streep- and the race is definitely between Bullock and Streep. I would say the latter deserves it (actually, I would say the complete unknown Sidibe deserves it), but the former seems set to win her first award. (Streep already has two Oscars.) Bullock is a talented actress best known for her so-so comedies who is finally getting recognized for her dramatic work. She also holds the unusual distinction of being nominated for an Oscar and a Razzie in the same year. (The latter is for Worst Actress for the flop All About Steve.)

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Guessed correctly: 3 + alternate
Incorrect guesses: Alec Baldwin, It's Complicated; Alfred Molina, An Education
Instead of: Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Two actors here play real people, Damon and Plummer. (The latter plays Leo Tolstoy.) But it's Waltz that seems set to take the award for a role in which he had to speak four languages and had to act charming and insane, often in the same scene. He really has created one of the most memorable villains in screen history. That distinction also goes to Tucci's serial killer, but this is Lovely Bones' only nomination, making it very difficult to win. His nomination is his victory.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

Guessed correctly: 4
Incorrect guess: Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Instead of: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Crazy Heart proved it wasn't just a vehicle for Jeff Bridges by getting three nominations, including one for Gyllenhaal that surprised everybody. Cruz won this award last year, so she's just in for show. Farmiga's performance was sexy and genuine, but she doesn't have much of a shot. Kendrick has the support of the critics- and Oscar does like to award unknowns- but Mo'Nique will probably take it home for her completely transformative performance as an abusive mother.

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

Guessed correctly: 3 + alternate
Incorrect guesses: Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Single Man
Instead of: In the Loop

In the Loop being nominated here was a surprise to everybody. This was a British political satire that was critically acclaimed but was ignored by audiences and didn't make it to theaters. This race is hard to predict, but I think Up in the Air will follow in Reitman's last film Juno's footsteps by just winning the screenplay award and getting shut out everywhere else.

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

Guessed correctly: 3 + alternate
Incorrect guesses: (500) Days of Summer, It's Complicated
Instead of: The Messenger

This category is an interesting mix of drama, comedy, and even animation. I would say The Hurt Locker would get it since it's such a serious Best Picture contender, but it may go to Quentin Tarantino's crazy script for Inglourious Basterds. Anyone notice Avatar isn't nominated here?

Best Animated Feature

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

Guessed correctly: 3 + 1 alternate
Incorrect alternate: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Instead of: The Secret of Kells

I know what you're thinking: what the hell is Kells? I didn't know, either. It's a strange-looking film from Belgium based on an ancient folk tale. It's currently set to open in the U.S. in March. How did the Academy get enough people to see this film that no one's heard of to garner a nomination? I guess it doesn't matter, since Pixar's Best Picture-nominated Up will easily take the prize. An upset by Fantastic Mr. Fox is possible, but very unlikely. Hooray to Disney for having two of the five nominated films here.

All right, that's it for now. This post is split into two parts because, you know, I'm busy with other stuff. Part two will consist of the technical nominations (which I did not predict) and the other awards that no one really cares about, like Best Documentary Short.
In case you haven't heard, there are two hosts for the show this year: Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. That is sure to be a hilarious show with those two faux-rivals at the helm, and I personally can't wait. (Check out the two of them together in It's Complicated and an episode of 30 Rock, and you'll see why I'm excited.) The show will be the night of Sunday, March 7th. Mark your calendars!

Sunday, February 7, 2010

The Blind Side **1/2

The Blind Side
**1/2 out of ****

What was supposed to be simply one of the many forgettable feel-good movies of the year has become one of the biggest hits of the year, thanks to the star power of Sandra Bullock and its moving story.
The Blind Side is the story of Michael Oher, a large black teenager with a violent past whom society has forgotten. He doesn't talk much, he has no home, no real education, and no true family. He wears the same shirt everyday and depends on the kindness of others to get by. After getting accepted to a nice private Christian school thanks to the pleadings of a desperate football coach, Michael is picked up off the street and brought to the home of the Tuohy (pronounced TOO-ee) family. The matriarch, Leigh Anne, is a tough, no-nonsense religious woman who never swears but is always fierce and demands respect from everyone around her. Michael is quickly accepted into this family. The image of a large black kid next to these small rich white folks inspires many laughs. Along the way, Michael improves his grades, goes out for the football team, and attempts to choose a college to go to on a football scholarship.
Since the story is so predictable, the film relies on strong performances from its lovable cast. Sandra Bullock leads the pack as Leigh Anne, taking on a slightly deglamorized part (and a convincing Southern accent) in order to play a real person. Newcomer Quinton Aaron plays Michael as a gentle giant, a very polite young man who despite his size, doesn't even know how to play football correctly. A nearly unrecognizable Tim McGraw also turns in a solid performance as the family patriarch Sean. Their two kids also win over the audience's hearts, especially the mischievous little tyke, S.J. Kathy Bates also shows up late in the film as Michael's tutor, and gives us one of the funniest scenes in the movie.
All in all, The Blind Side is just another inspirational sports drama. It's all about the love of family and football, and its emotional parts are about as subtle as a sledgehammer. While it's a very entertaining film, it's shallow and predictable, and most of its conflict is weighted towards the end. But, it's a big crowd-pleaser, which is all that really needs to be said for a movie that doesn't ask for you to think twice about it.
I would recommend this film to people who like football movies, Sandra Bullock, and people who like to go awwwww.

You can watch the trailer here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poKvUy0xYuE