2010 Oscar Winners Predictions

This year's Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most memorable in recent years. With many unusual nominees will come several unusual winners, and so with that comes my slightly bold winners predictions. I'm very excited for this year, what with two hosts, ten Best Picture nominees, and countless stars slated to attend. It will surely live up to its name of Hollywood's biggest night.
Below is listed every category, who I think will win, and my personal opinion on who I think deserves to win. As always, I would love to see comments on this post, both before and after the ceremony. I will be doing a follow-up post in the week following the big night.
Now, without any further ado...

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Up in the Air

This race is large and features many good films, but it's really down to just two: Avatar and The Hurt Locker. Even at this late hour, I can see the pendulum swinging in either direction, but I will have to side with the big ol' sci-fi film with all the blue creatures. It's certainly got the box office on its side (in case you've been living in a cave for the last few months, Avatar has replaced James Cameron's own Titanic as the highest-grossing film of all time) and boasts simply the best technical acheivements ever put on celluloid. It wasn't universally loved by critics, but the Academy loves it enough to let it follow in Titanic's footsteps and bestow it with the biggest prize in cinema. The Hurt Locker is definitely deserving of the award- I do believe, after all, that it is one of the best war films ever made- but its failure at the box office and its very difficult competition will ultimately be its undoing. After reviewing the options very closely, I have decided Up in the Air, the dramedy starring George Clooney is my favorite of the bunch. It's the single most enjoyable film to watch, with equal parts laughs and tears. Unfortunately, the film has lost a lot of steam over the past few weeks and may end up being forgotten altogether come Oscar night. Films with long shots like Up, District 9, and The Blind Side will have to settle with just being nominated, which in this case truly is an honor. Inglourious Basterds and Precious could have been front-runners in other years, but have a better chance in the acting categories. An Education? A Serious Man? Seriously? These films really weren't even good enough to make the ballot. They better be grateful for the new 10-film system, otherwise they wouldn't be in the dugout with films like these. Whether or not the Academy continues with the 10-film system remains to be seen, depending on whether or not they consider this year to be a success.

Best Director

James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow
Who should win: Kathryn Bigelow

Once again, it's a contest between ex-spouses Cameron and Bigelow for the win. The Academy simply won't be able to resist giving it to a well-deserving woman for the first time in history. Her gender aside, she truly deserves it for crafting an intimate, intense, and terrifying portrait of war that actually mimics what war feels like in real life. Sure, Cameron had to invent a few new technologies in order to get his epic made, but he already has one of these. Tarantino is also deserving of a Golden Boy, but while his characters are addictingly watchable, they're also very emotionally distant. Reitman is talented, but the film has a better shot in the writing category. Daniels is only the second African American to be nominated here, and while his leadership made Precious something special, his impressive competition will keep him from winning this year.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Who will win: Jeff Bridges
Who should win: Jeremy Renner

This being his fifth nomination, Bridges will win more for a stellar career than for a stellar performance (even though he was very good and fearless as an alcoholic washed-up country singer). The movie itself is simply so-so, and as such, I can't generate much support for it. Freeman is the only one here to play a real person, but his nomination is really only here to round out the category. I loved Clooney in Up in the Air, he was very genuine and you were really rooting for him, but my vote goes to Renner, whose career-making performance as a solider addicted to the adrenaline of near-death experiences makes him the perfect antihero for this fantastic war film.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Who will win: Sandra Bullock
Who should win: Gabourey Sidibe

This race is really between the Oscar freshman Bullock and the Oscar senior Streep. Streep was good as Julia Child, but I felt her performance was more caricature than true-life, even though she does manage some good emotional moments. Bullock is good as a tough matriarch, but definitely not Oscar-worthy. She'll win for making The Blind Side a huge hit and for finally doing something different with her career. Mulligan might be the best part of An Education, a film full of great performances, but my vote goes to the newcomer Sidibe, whose role as Precious was tragic and empowering, and made you think twice about how you treat people.

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Who will win: Christoph Waltz
Who should win: Christoph Waltz

Everyone going in to see Inglourious Basterds expected Brad Pitt to be the biggest star and the best part of the movie. And everyone coming out of that movie was talking not about Pitt's low-wattage commando, but Waltz's incredible turn as a Nazi Jew-hunter. His performance really turned the movie around, and has proved he can take on virtually any role. In another year, I would be rooting for Tucci's very bold performance as a serial killer or Harrelson's emotionally withdrawn soldier. But Waltz has won every pre-Oscar award so far, and he will easily win come Sunday.

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Mo'Nique, Precious

Who will win: Mo'Nique
Who should win: Anna Kendrick

At this point, nothing can stop the power train that is Mo'Nique. Her alarming turn as an abusive mother is completely transformative and haunting. While I recognize the power of her performance, I can't vote for such an unpleasant part of the film, and will instead turn to the year's biggest surprise performance, from the young Kendrick, who more than held her own against George Clooney. She provides the film with its best moments. Cruz, Farmiga, and Gyllenhaal, while all good (Gyllenhaal was particularly good; she was that film's emotional center) don't stand much of a chance here and are mostly just filler nominations.

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
In the Loop
Precious
Up in the Air

What will win: Up in the Air
What should win: District 9

This award should go to Jason Reitman for the funny-sad script for Up in the Air. While the story is very good- and Oscar-worthy- it's really going to win just because it is the film's only real shot at success. It'll get shut out in the acting, directing, and producing categories, and will thus be rewarded for writing. My personal vote goes to the alien allegory District 9. Even though it's adapted- based on director Neill Blomkamp's own short film- it's one of the most original films of the year and really had people talking. Precious might pull an upset for its incredibly moving script.

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
A Serious Man
Up

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: Inglourious Basterds

The Hurt Locker may very well sweep the Oscars this year, and so even if it doesn't win Best Picture, it will win here for its suspenseful take on the Iraq war. Personally, I think much of the film's success is due not to the script, but to the actors and director. No one writes anything quite like Quentin Tarantino, and so he gets my vote for weaving together several diverse storylines and many characters to create a cohesive picture that never feels long or slow, despite many long scenes of just dialogue. I love Pixar's stuff, but some parts of Up's storyline feel cliche. The Messenger is a very unique story, and seems very moving. (I haven't seen it yet.) A Serious Man is really just standard Coen brothers fare, which means it's bizarre, confusing, and ultimately pointless.

Best Original Score

Avatar
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Hurt Locker
Sherlock Holmes
Up

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Avatar had a lot to prove to all of its haters when it came out: people thought the film would rely solely on its amazing special effects to get by, but the film surpassed almost all expectations, including in this category. The score is sweeping, epic, emotional, and exciting. Up could pull an upset here, and I would be happy to see that win, too: take another look at the wordless montage at the beginning of the film that uses only visuals and music to tell the heartbreaking story of Carl and his beloved wife Ellie.

Best Original Song

"Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
"Down in New Orleans," The Princess and the Frog
"Loin de Paname," Paris 36
"Take It All," Nine
"The Weary Kind," Crazy Heart

What will win: "The Weary Kind"
What should win: "The Weary Kind"

Crazy Heart's theme song is the only listenable song in this selection. The quiet country tune will easily win this sorry excuse for an Academy Award category this year.

Best Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: Avatar

Avatar may win Best Picture, but I think The Hurt Locker will pick this one up for upping the suspense and for adding in a few very cinematic slo-mo shots amidst all the realistic action. My vote, however, goes to Cameron's own editing for Avatar, since the film was put together in a way that makes sure it's remembered for years to come.

Best Cinematography

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

What will win: The Hurt Locker
What should win: The Hurt Locker

Hurt Locker used handheld cameras that gave the film a vague documentary feel that put the viewer in the Iraqi desert with the soldiers, so that we could feel the intensity right along with them. You could almost feel the hot sun on your eyes. It gets my vote, as well as it surely will the Academy's.

Best Makeup

Il Divo
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

What will win: Star Trek
What should win: Star Trek

Victoria has royalty and legendary sideburns, and Il Divo has Italian guys, but Star Trek has bald Romulans with tattoos, pointy-eared Vulcans, and lots of post-fight injury wounds. It's definitely the most showy makeup of the three, and will boldy go where no Trek film has gone before- to the stage at the Academy Awards.

Best Costume Design

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
The Young Victoria

What will win: The Young Victoria
What should win: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus

Royalty always wins here. (Witness past winners Marie Antoinette and The Duchess.) Victoria follows in that tradition by showing off glamorous dresses the whole film through. My vote, however, goes to the wacky contraptions of Terry Gilliam's Doctor Parnassus. This world was hard to recreate from someone's imagination, but it all looks real, and the costumes ground the characters in reality.

Best Art Direction

Avatar
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Give Avatar one last peek and you'll see why it deserves this award: every frame is so intricate, so detailed, it seriously looks like a living, breathing world full of blue creatures and bioluminescent plants. The Academy may not like how almost all of its art direction is tied directly with visual effects, and in that case, Nine will probably pull an upset for setting the mood of the '50s quite nicely.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

This one's been decided for months now. District 9 and Star Trek both have very impressive special effects, but Avatar invented a new method of motion-capture and immersed the viewer in a purely digital world. Everything looks incredibly real, and there's no stopping this trophy from landing in blue hands.

Best Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Up

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

Star Trek and Up had extremely good sound effects, but nothing can compete with Avatar's reign over the computer world. The film's visuals were amazing, yes, but it needed believable sound in order to complete the picture.

Best Sound Mixing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

What will win: Avatar
What should win: Avatar

I'm learning gradually about the difference between the two sound Oscars. This one covers the film's overall sound, as opposed to individual effects, but Avatar is still the most impressive in that area. Possible upsets could come from The Hurt Locker, which painted a perfect picture of Baghdad, or from Inglourious Basterds, which effectively used silence to highten suspense in pivotal moments.

Best Animated Feature

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

What will win: Up
What should win: Up

Pixar's gem Up not only has the most nominations of the bunch (including an extremely rare Best Picture nom), but it's the best-made, the most watchable, and the most original of any of these films. No other film comes close. An upset could come in the form of Mr. Fox, but this is very unlikely.

Best Foreign Language Film

Ajami
El Secreto de Sus Ojos
The Milk of Sorrow
Un Prophete
The White Ribbon

What will win: The White Ribbon
What should win: ?

None of these films are very popular with American audiences, making this race hard to predict this year. The White Ribbon won the Palme d'Or at Cannes and is the most artsy of the bunch, so that's my guess.

Best Documentary Feature

Burmja VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

What will win: The Cove
What should win: ?

An upset by the popular Food, Inc. is possible, but the obvious winner here is The Cove, which has wowed critics and audiences alike. Plus, it's a documentary that plays out like a thriller- exactly what the people want.

Best Live Action Short

The Door
Instead of Abracadabra
Kavi
Miracle Fish
The New Tenants

What will win: Kavi
What should win: ?

I really don't know anything about these films. I choose Kavi simply because it was the most easily accessible film; if I can find it, other people can watch it.

Best Animated Short

French Roast
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty
The Lady and the Reaper
Logorama
A Matter of Loaf and Death

What will win: A Matter of Loaf and Death
What should win: ?

There are lots of good choices here with some impressive animation, but the award will go once again to Wallace and Gromit for charming kids and adults alike across the globe.

Best Documentary Short

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Music by Prudence
Rabbit a la Berlin

What will win: Music by Prudence
What should win: ?

Honestly, I don't really care about this category. If they pre-tape this award being given out, I will declare the producers of the show geniuses.

That's all of 'em. Are you as excited as I am? Probably not. But you should watch the Oscars anyway because love 'em or hate 'em, they're always interesting, funny, and always manage to generate conversation. Once again, the 82nd annual Academy Awards will air on Sunday, March 7th, at 6:00 pm. on ABC. See who goes home with the gold along with the rest of the country at this already-historic show.